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carlton63schwarz
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weiblich | |
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18.02.1991 (33) | |
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22.10.2020 um 12:06 Uhr | |
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22.10.2020 um 13:12 Uhr | |
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klitgaardhougaard39vhylxa (at) microsemails (dot) com |
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cyberbit.online/ |
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| Experts from Wroclaw, Poland Alphamoon used artificial intelligence algorithms to create a simulation of the spread of SARS-coronavirus CoV-2 in Poland. Well, everything depends on us. The resulting three basic simulations for our country. The first limitation of leaving home and moving was completely abolished after Easter. In the second restrictions were maintained until the decrease in the number of new infections and the number of tests remaining at current levels. Meanwhile, in the third maintained restrictions, increased the number of tests and further tightened the isolation of people already infected. "According to the most optimistic forecasts, we currently have, which is the third simulation, while maintaining restrictions (lockdown) at the appropriate level and increasing the number of tests performed, which currently happens, the likelihood of completion of the epidemic to the end of May could reach 44 percent, and the end of July already 78 percent. Interestingly, significant inhibition should be visible in the second half of April "- we can read in the report. In the second simulation, less optimistic, or maintain restrictions on leaving the house and moving at Easter time and after, and not increasing the number of tests, will translate into the fact that Poland will witness increase in the number of infected "tens of thousands of people, like going this in Spain and Italy. " Despite this, the peak incidence moves to the fall, so they can already receive the vaccine. However the fact still serious economic collapse. Meanwhile, in the first simulation, when the government decides to lockdownu fully completed in mid-April, the peak incidence "will fall for the second half of May and may reach even a few million." "The number of dead people can go in the tens of thousands, and the epidemic runs only during the holidays." Cyber Bit The most preferred option is for us, so the third, which provides for the imposition of further restrictions, simultaneously raising awareness that he must stay home and minimize contact, as well as maximizing tests. Then we have a chance to save themselves, relatives and friends, as well as to save the economy and end the pandemic in Poland with great success in the summer. Everything depends on us! The analysis was carried out on the basis of an improved version of an epidemiological model Seir, commonly used in the case of coronavirus. Aplhamoon expanded model, among others, the value of illnesses, deaths and recoveries, and also taken into account the patients without symptoms or not tested. |